Knowing Your Area’s Crime Trends Is Critical to Security
When it comes to ensuring the safety and security of your organization, one of the most critical factors to consider is local crime data. While it’s easy to assume that your security systems and protocols are sufficient, without an understanding of crime trends in your area, you could be blindsided by risks you didn’t anticipate. It is incredibly important to know the crime statistics where you operate.
And just as importantly how criminal trends are progressing in the area, because a once peaceful location doesn’t ensure that this history will always be the norm.
When operating within an area or region, it is important that you understand the threats within that area, the overall criminal trends and who the major players are. This will help you to prescribe solutions to your clients, but only if you understand the threats that they are facing.
The purpose of this post is to help those within physical security, or security in general, to understand that local risk may not be what you expect, and that just because the crime levels of a location were low doesn’t mean that is always the case.
For brevity I will only use a few countries as examples
The USA
In recent years, there's been a notable increase in crime rates across many Western countries which of course includes the USA.
This trend contradicts earlier reports by the FBI that suggested crime was steadily decreasing. According to the NY Post
“In October of 2023, the FBI put out a press release unveiling its national crime data for 2022, which found that “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates.”
Initially, the bureau projected that the violent crime rate relative to the US population had slipped by 2.1% in 2022 compared to 2021. But the FBI’s adjustment now suggests that the rate of violent crime actually jumped by about 4.5% over the same period.”
The FBI’s recent revision of its crime data revealed that crime is not on the decline as once thought but is, in fact, on the rise. The FBI's adjustments showed a substantial uptick in violent crimes, particularly in urban areas.
As reported in the Wall Street Journal, “urban crime rates are up, contrary to popular belief” . This surge in violence has forced businesses and residents alike to rethink their safety strategies.
Now, the US, especially in urban areas, sees high levels of gun crime, which has only gotten worse with rival foreign gangs entering into the picture. which one always needs to take into account, but in order to not make this post a novel I will move onto the rest of the world.
The Grid
While violent crime increasing is a substantial concern, the power grid is arguably an even larger issue. I have written on many occasions as to how vulnerable the power grid is, but the importance of this topic cannot be overstated.
Your reliable power controls civilization itself, including power, water, transport, and indeed every aspect of modern life. While many people look at a risk of the power grid as a potential risk of being without power for a few hours … the reality is that an organized attack could leave entire cities without power for months or years at a time … and no that is sadly not an overstatement.
Unfortunately, keeping in line with the topic of this post, physical attacks on the power grid are also increasing
This means that around once every two days, someone inside the US is attempting to dismantle or harm at least some part of the power grid. To put this into perspective here is a map of physical attacks on the power grid in 2023 from January to March (only 3 months).
What the above should hopefully help readers understand is that our supply chains are not only critical, but also under almost daily attack. And if you understand how vulnerable everything from power to water actually is, it should be of great concern.
A Global Trend
The problems above are not just an American issue, but really a Western one, as most Western countries are experiencing a surge in crime. I will list a few examples that may surprise some
The UK
Each country will have its own unique issues and problems when it comes to crime, the UK like many countries has the standard types of expected crime, but also one that most people wouldn’t expect … acid attacks
Acid attacks have surged alarmingly in the UK, with 710 cases reported in 2022, a 69% increase from 421 the year before. This marks a reversal in declining trends seen since 2017, when attacks had peaked at 941 incidents. Worryingly, 2022 also saw women being targeted more than men for the first time, with 339 women affected compared to 317 men
”Acid attacks have risen in London by 45% in a year, Met Police data revealed.
The force recorded 107 of such attacks in 2022, up from 74 in 2021, a Freedom of Information request stated.
The data, released by the charity Acid Survivors Trust International (ASTI), found in England and Wales the attacks rose 69% in the same time frame.”
Despite legal reforms under the Offensive Weapons Act of 2019, which introduced stricter controls on the sale of corrosive substances, attackers continue to gain access to these chemicals. Acid attacks now cost the UK £44 million annually, reflecting the high medical, legal, and social costs associated with these crimes
I wanted to highlight this particular type of crime, because it isn’t one that most people think of at all, let alone take into consideration when assessing risk.
But when entering into an area, understanding the criminal trends are vital to your own security but also to your clients.
Sweden
Sweden is grappling with a sharp rise in gang-related violence, marked by an increasing number of shootings and bombings. In 2023 alone, there were 134 bomb attacks, up from 90 in the previous year, alongside 195 shootings, making Sweden one of the most violent countries in Europe per capita.
These incidents, primarily between rival drug gangs, have spread beyond typical criminal turf wars to target family members of gang members, creating widespread fear and insecurity even in suburban neighborhoods
One alarming trend is the recruitment of teenagers by gangs to carry out these attacks, often lured with promises of money and material rewards. These young recruits are involved not only in Sweden but have also been linked to violent crimes in neighboring countries like Denmark.
According to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen
“Criminal groups in Denmark have hired Swedish child soldiers — that’s what I call them — to carry out criminal deeds,” Hummelgaard said at a press conference Monday, adding that he will also pressure Sweden to take responsibility.
The teenagers are being seduced on social media, particularly Telegram, being promised hundreds of thousands of Swedish kronor for everything from spying and committing vandalism to violent acts and murder. Many have no prior criminal history.”
To give you an idea of the scale of these attacks within Denmark from Swedish “child soldiers” the Danish Minister of Justice stated that
“Since April, there have been 25 episodes of 'Swedish child soldiers' in Denmark”
Since 2024, Danish authorities have charged several Swedish teenagers with crimes ranging from attempted murder to bomb attacks, sparking diplomatic pressure for Sweden to address its growing gang problem
The Police Response Crisis: How Delays and Unsolved Crimes Affect Public Safety
One of the biggest challenges in fighting crime is the effectiveness of police response and investigative follow-up. In many regions, law enforcement struggles to keep up with the demands of rising crime rates. Poor response times and a growing backlog of unsolved cases create an environment where criminals feel emboldened.
A recent report from The Independent highlighted that over 90% of crimes in some areas of the UK remain unsolved, fueling frustrations among the public and victims alike.
“Only 5.7 per cent of crimes were solved by police last year, according to new figures, as Labour condemned the government’s “abysmal” record on law and order.
Home Office data for England and Wales, released earlier this month, revealed the proportion of crimes that resulted in a charge or summons was 5.7 per cent, although that figure represented a small increase on the previous year.
The data, which covers a 12-month period from April 2022 onwards, showed that 2.3 million crimes were dropped without a suspect being found.
The charge rate for sexual offences was 3.6 per cent, with rape at 2.1 per cent.
Only 6.5 per cent of robbery offences ended with someone being charged.”
Jumping to police response time, in New York City, for example, police response times have hit a historic high. Due to declining officer numbers, the NYPD recorded its slowest response times in decades, according to Police1 . As response times lengthen, the likelihood of catching perpetrators in the act diminishes, which in turn emboldens criminals and leads to further increases in crime.
You can see the breakdown of weekly response times from the NYPD below
This creates a vicious cycle: without timely police intervention and a reliable resolution of cases, crime tends to proliferate. If criminals believe that they can act without consequence, the risks to businesses and individuals rise exponentially.
For businesses, especially those operating in areas with slow police responses, it’s vital to have robust internal security measures. Relying solely on law enforcement could leave you vulnerable.
Conclusion
By staying informed about crime trends in your area, you can better assess your risks and implement preventive measures. As we’ve seen, whether it’s in the U.S., the UK, or anywhere else, the trend is clear—crime is not only increasing but is becoming more complex, with digital crimes on the rise alongside more traditional forms of criminal behavior.
As crime grows and becomes more frequent, police responses will likely also increase which will lead to a growing number of unsolved crimes.
It is very important to stay on top of criminal trends, major players, and areas that are considerably troublesome. You cannot give good advice to yourself or your clients, if you don’t know what the real threats are.
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